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Stopping the Mediterranean migration tragedies has no quick fix

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European foreign and interior ministers met in Luxembourg on Monday for crisis talks after 700 migrants died off Sicily this weekend. UNHCR estimates that 218,000 crossed the sea in 2014, and another 3,500 died.

It is important that EU leaders do not take a knee-jerk superficial approach. Population displacement is an extremely complex issue, one academics have fought over for years, complicated by the West’s role in Libya’s current instability. Italian authorities believe 90% of the boats are boarded on the Libyan coast.

In Finland, the anti-migration party ‘The Finns’ came second in Sunday’s election, meaning they are likely to govern with the Centre Party. Formerly the ‘True Finns’, their leader Timo Soini is aiming for the Foreign Minister post. He is unlikely to commit more of Finland’s recession-hit resources to address problems in the distant Mediterranean. The outgoing Finnish government already drafted plans for expelling Greece from the Euro. This could alienate Greece, even drive it from the EU, making south European cooperation on migration impossible.

Britain, with an election in two weeks, cannot commit to the kind of joint operation required. The Conservative party has a prominent, tough line on immigration which would be ridiculed as hypocritical if it endorsed any action that saw more newcomers from North Africa.

Italy’s proposal would be for the EU to help fund its elapsed Mare Nostrum (‘our sea’) programme, or one like it, which had three times the number of patrols than the EU’s current replacement, Operation Triton. The UK coalition previously opposed this, arguing that Mare Nostrum is a ‘pull factor’ encouraging more migrants and traffickers to attempt the trip in the knowledge that the Italian navy might save them.

Germany, which has seen a spike in asylum claims and is struggling to contain the Pegida movement, wants to get EU members to agree to a system of sharing asylum seekers and refugees more equally. Free movement and Dublin Convention rules currently mean refugees must apply to their country of entry, or try to illegally gravitate towards the wealthier states.

Philip Hammond told the BBC he favoured ‘a comprehensive, European level response’ which clashes with his party’s aim to resist devolving more power to Brussels. His priorities were ‘targeting the criminals… managing this traffic’ and the importance of ‘work upstream in the countries from which these people are coming’. This is difficult, not just because of Libya’s lack off stable government, but because migrants come from distressed regions across Africa and the Middle East.

David Cameron said that the other side of the equation was using the aid budget to help improve the migrants’ countries’ governance. He will meet other EU leaders on Thursday to conclude a deal centred on better Triton resources for civil-military operations to destroy traffickers’ ships.

At least discussion seems to have moved from an Australian-style offshore processing model. But tackling today’s traffickers, without addressing the demand side that drives thousands to attempt the desperate crossing, is likely only to delay attempts, not solve the issue.


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